Conservation & Ecological RestorationNora Heaphy

Genomic Evaluation and Monitoring of Assisted Migration Field Trials for a Keystone Northern Forest Tree

Red spruce dominates high-elevation sites in the northeast, where it provides timber, habitat for a number of at-risk species, and recreational value to humans, but models predict the loss of most of its present-day habitat by the end of the century. The genomic offset model has emerged as a powerful new tool for forecasting population responses to climate change and selecting seed sources for restoration plantings. This study will evaluate seedling performance in a network of recently established assisted migration trials for red spruce in VT and NH, providing the first test of the genomic offset model under real-world field conditions. By estimating the degree of maladaptation expected for seedlings based on the adaptive genetic variation available in the source populations, the study will also assess the tradeoff between adaptation to future climate conditions and reduced performance under current conditions, a crucial consideration for assisted migration efforts that has never been experimentally tested.